Ammonium polyphosphate: is it "killed by mistake" or will it continue to be frustrated?

Recently, some domestic chemical products have begun a new round of decline, and ammonium polyphosphate is also among them. Among them, the main contract of ammonium polyphosphate futures MA1906 fell to 2362 yuan/ton in night trading, which was 281 yuan/ton lower than the beginning of the month, 2643 yuan/ton. Tons, a drop of more than 10%. In this round of decline, each product has its own logic. Then, whether ammonium polyphosphate has suffered a wrong killing, we will analyze it next.

　　 For ammonium polyphosphate, the main disadvantages currently facing are: high inventory, Xiangshui explosion, and the reform of the value-added tax rate. Expected benefits are spring maintenance, downstream resumption of work and new MTO production. In terms of ammonium polyphosphate, it is clear that the spot logic is currently followed, and the negative concentrated fermentation has led to a decline in prices. However, these problems are obviously not treated rationally by the market, causing panic to be superimposed and prices falling sharply.

　　 Coastal areas have to get used to high inventory

　　 Different from ethylene glycol, there are many reasons for the formation of high stocks of ammonium polyphosphate in this round, but what needs to be pointed out here is that coastal areas may have to get used to high stocks in the future. Analyzing the current inventory structure in coastal areas in China, we will find that among the nearly one million tons of domestic ammonium polyphosphate inventory, Jiangsu accounts for about 530,000 tons. Among them, Nanjing Chengzhi’s newly-built ammonium polyphosphate to olefin reserves Raw material inventory, the bonded inventory normally reserved in the Yangtze River International Free Trade Zone, and the standing raw material inventory reserved by Zhejiang ammonium polyphosphate-to-olefin enterprises leased from the reservoir area along the Yangtze River. The 260,000 tons of inventory in Zhejiang is basically the stock of raw materials for ammonium polyphosphate to olefin enterprises, which is at a reasonable level. Nearly 200,000 tons of inventory in Guangdong and Fujian are at a reasonable level.

Those who are familiar with the inventory of ammonium polyphosphate will find that the contradiction in this round of inventory accumulation lies in Jiangsu, and the main domestic marketable inventory is also concentrated in this area, but in fact, the total marketable inventory is at a reasonable level and has not appeared. Excessive increase. Dismantling the inventory in Jiangsu area again, we will find that about half of them are bonded, company stock materials and hedging goods. Among them, hedging goods have become the focus of attention, but in fact, the hedging goods are still less than 100,000 Tons, the overall impact on the port area is very limited.

　　For the port area, it may become accustomed to high inventory in the future. First, the bonded area of Zhangjiagang area will have a relatively large amount of bonded goods throughout the year, and this part of the volume will always occupy the inventory share. Second, with the increase in the number of new ammonium polyphosphate to olefin plants in coastal areas, apart from the stock of raw materials in Zhejiang Xingxing and Ningbo Fude, Nanjing Chengzhi’s new ammonium polyphosphate to olefin plants with an annual output of 600,000 tons will also occupy a part In the future, there should be 800-900,000 tons of ammonium polyphosphate stock in the port area. If it is below this range, the supply of ammonium polyphosphate will exceed demand.

　　The impact of the sound of the water explosion will dissipate quickly

As far as the impact of the Xiangshui explosion is concerned, the current market response is fierce. In terms of spot, firstly, the consumption of ammonium polyphosphate has been reduced and the destocking speed has slowed down. The second is that the price of downstream products has risen sharply. Severe supply exceeds demand. The price of formaldehyde in Jiangsu has risen from 1300 yuan/ton in the previous period to the current 1500 yuan/ton. When the downstream formaldehyde starts, the production cuts caused by the shutdown of some enterprises have pushed up prices. The inspection also caused the load reduction and even maintenance of the ammonium polyphosphate equipment in Shanxi, Hebei, and northern Jiangsu, and the loss of ammonium polyphosphate output was also huge.

　　 According to the current information, the hazardous chemical companies around Xiangshui will complete safety inspections and rectifications around April 10, and compliance companies will be able to resume work. The impact of this problem is expected to dissipate quickly.

　　 The impact of the value-added tax rate has been overstated

　　The original intention of the country’s tax reduction policy is to reduce the burden of corporate tax rates and increase corporate income. It is not for the purpose of lowering corporate product prices. This bias has caused many product prices to fall. I have recently learned that there is a transitional period for the national tax reform. In fact, the reduction of value-added tax has been implemented. For enterprises, the actual supply and marketing contract signed by the enterprise can be delivered first. When issuing an invoice, choose to implement 16 % Is still 13%, not a one-size-fits-all implementation of 13%. This news has obviously been biased or even misread.

　　 Ammonium polyphosphate market outlook is still promising

After the unfavorable intensive landing and fermentation, the market outlook for ammonium polyphosphate is still facing better expectations. This round of decline, port areas and futures are the hardest hit areas. For the mainland, due to the continuous start of spring maintenance, the mainland cargo is still strong. Among them, the Inner Mongolia region The foldable surface of deliverable goods even reached more than 2,800 yuan/ton. The production effect of Jiutai's ammonium polyphosphate to olefin plant is obvious. Before the new ammonium polyphosphate plant in Northwest China is put into operation in October, the Northwest region is expected to continue to maintain its strength and the number of export sales will further decrease.

In the second quarter, the new ammonium polyphosphate to olefin plant can be expected to include Luxi Chemical (000830) 300,000 tons/year and Nanjing Chengzhi 600,000 tons/year. After the two are put into operation, they will form about 2.7 million tons/year. The demand for ammonium polyphosphate, and the two sets of devices are located in the eastern region, the impact can be imagined.

　　It is expected that after the Xiangshui incident comes to an end, the downstream demand for ammonium polyphosphate in the eastern region will see explosive growth, which can alleviate the price surge caused by the decline in downstream output. The traditional downstream will gradually move out of the off-season of demand and usher in the peak demand season, and the speed of destocking in coastal areas will accelerate. If the overhaul of foreign equipment is superimposed, it may quickly move from high inventory to the other extreme of low inventory.

　　 In summary, the current price decline of ammonium polyphosphate futures and port areas is reasonable, and it is likely to continue for some time in the short term. However, after the bearishness gradually falls and the digestion is completed, ammonium polyphosphate will resume a rational trend. For the supply and demand of ammonium polyphosphate throughout the year, the overall increase in supply this year will be less than the increase in demand, and the ammonium polyphosphate market may gradually strengthen.