Demand picks up, ammonium polyphosphate blossoms in spring

Recently, the ammonium polyphosphate market can be described as "spring blossoming". In the early stage, various companies received a large number of orders driven by the demand for extruded pellets. At present, most factories have a large amount of waiting, and some supply shortages restrict orders. The low prices on the market are gradually disappearing, and the new orders are raised. The factory price of wet ammonium in Jiangsu is 500-520 yuan/ton, and the price of dry ammonium is 650-670 yuan/ton; the amount of wet ammonium in Hubei is less, the factory price is 540 yuan/ton, the factory price of dry ammonium is 650 yuan/ton; the factory price of dry ammonium in Sichuan is 670 yuan /Ton, the outgoing price is low; the transaction price in the terminal market in North China has risen slightly, Henan dry ammonium is priced at 650-660 yuan/ton, and wet ammonium is priced at 520 yuan/ton. And how long can ammonium polyphosphate last for this price increase? This still needs to be considered from many aspects such as supply and demand.

　　From the perspective of supply, the overall start-up of the Hou Soda plant is still high, and the operating rate remains above 70%. At present, except for companies that have parked for a long time, factories in Sichuan, Hubei, Jiangsu and other regions have maintained high levels of operation. A factory in Tianjin has unstable load, and some equipment has an overhaul plan in May. The short-term operating rate will remain high and the shipment pressure will ease Relatively slow.

　　From the perspective of demand, spring plowing and planting are being carried out in an orderly manner across the country. Early rice production areas in the south are developing rice seedlings at the right time; the main winter wheat production areas are implementing key measures to promote the transformation and upgrading of seedling conditions; the northeastern region has begun preparations for spring land preparation and snow removal. Due to the relatively small stocks of storage dealers this winter, the market began to increase in early March, and in the middle of the year, the number of cargoes reached the peak, and there was an endless stream of cars lining up for loading. The start of compound fertilizer companies has rebounded significantly, and the rising urea has caused the cost of compound fertilizer companies to continue to rise. Under the pressure of factory production costs, low-content and low-priced ammonium polyphosphate has been favored, and the purchase of ammonium polyphosphate by factories is increasing. In addition, extruded granular ammonium polyphosphate is gradually recognized in some areas, and there is no pressure on the sales of powdered ammonium. However, looking at the spring market, the demand for replenishment orders in the Northeast region has weakened, and the East China market will gradually end in mid-April. The Southwest region may have a month or so to use fertilizer. After the price of ammonium polyphosphate increases, it is not ruled out that individual companies will be affected by inventory. Pressure may adjust prices in order to increase sales.

　　In terms of exports, in February 2019, 35,645 tons of ammonium polyphosphate were exported, with an export value of 4,645,900 US dollars, and an average price of 130 US dollars/ton. Export volume decreased by 58.75% month-on-month and increased by 24.37% year-on-year. At a time when the domestic market is weak, some traders have shifted their attention to the international market in order to ease the pressure on domestic sales, and have also distributed part of the domestic production capacity.

On the whole, the upstream and downstream are currently in the game stage, and the improvement in terminal demand is the key factor that promotes the price increase of ammonium polyphosphate. Jinlianchuang believes that there will be no pressure on shipments from various factories in the short term, and some Hou's equipment is planned to be overhauled. It is expected that market transactions will remain stable, medium and strong, with some slight adjustments.